Supporting data for "Evaluating short-term forecasting of COVID-19 cases among different epidemiological models under a Bayesian framework.""

Dataset type: Software, Bioinformatics
Data released on January 28, 2021

Li Q; Bedi T; Lehmann CU; Xiao G; Xie Y (2021): Supporting data for "Evaluating short-term forecasting of COVID-19 cases among different epidemiological models under a Bayesian framework."" GigaScience Database. http://dx.doi.org/10.5524/100863

DOI10.5524/100863

Forecasting of COVID-19 cases daily and weekly has been one of the challenges posed to governments and the health sector globally. To facilitate informed public health decisions, the concerned parties rely on short-term daily projections generated via predictive modeling. We calibrate stochastic variants of growth models and the standard SIR model into one Bayesian framework to evaluate and compare their short term forecasts. We implement rolling-origin cross-validation to compare the short-term forecasting performance of the stochastic epidemiological models and an autoregressive moving average model across 20 countries that had the most confirmed COVID-19 cases as of August 22, 2020. None of the models proved to be a gold standard across all regions, while all outperformed the autoregressive moving average model in terms of the accuracy of forecast and interpretability.





File NameSample IDData TypeFile FormatSizeRelease Date 
GitHub archivezip22.11 KB2021-01-16
readme.txtTEXT1.92 KB2021-01-28
Displaying 1-2 of 2 File(s).
Funding body Awardee Award ID Comments
National Institutes of Health Y Xie R35GM136375
National Institutes of Health Y Xie & G Xiao P30CA142543
National Institutes of Health Y Xie & G Xiao P50CA70907
National Institutes of Health Y Xie 1R01GM115473
Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas G Xiao RP190107
Cancer Prevention and Research Institute of Texas Y Xie RP180805
University of Texas at Dallas G Xiao Center for Disease Dynamics and Statistics
National Institutes of Health G Xiao 5R01CA152301
National Institutes of Health Y Xie 1R01GM140012
Date Action
January 28, 2021 Dataset publish
February 1, 2021 Manuscript Link added : 10.1093/gigascience/giab009
March 3, 2021 Title updated from : Supporting data for "Evaluating Short-term Forecasting among Different Epidemiological Models under a Bayesian Framework"